The estimates shown are present value, life cycle benefits and costs. All dollars are expressed in the base year chosen for this analysis (2016). The chance the benefits exceed the costs are derived from a Monte Carlo risk analysis. The details on this, as well as the economic discount rates and other relevant parameters are described in our Technical Documentation.
Benefit-Cost Summary Statistics Per Participant |
|
|
Taxpayers |
$2,254 |
|
Benefits minus costs |
($84,127) |
|
|
Participants |
$1,941 |
|
Benefit to cost ratio |
($0.36) |
|
|
Others |
$3,919 |
|
Chance the program will produce |
|
|
|
Indirect |
($30,334) |
|
benefits greater than the costs |
0 % |
|
|
Total benefits |
($22,219) |
|
|
|
|
|
Net program cost |
($61,908) |
|
|
|
|
|
Benefits minus cost |
($84,127) |
|
|
|
|
|
1In addition to the outcomes measured in the meta-analysis table, WSIPP measures benefits and costs estimated from other outcomes associated with those reported in the evaluation literature. For example, empirical research demonstrates that high school graduation leads to reduced crime. These associated measures provide a more complete picture of the detailed costs and benefits of the program.
2“Others” includes benefits to people other than taxpayers and participants. Depending on the program, it could include reductions in crime victimization, the economic benefits from a more educated workforce, and the benefits from employer-paid health insurance.
3“Indirect benefits” includes estimates of the net changes in the value of a statistical life and net changes in the deadweight costs of taxation.
Detailed Monetary Benefit Estimates Per Participant |
|
Taxpayers |
Participants |
Others2 |
Indirect3 |
Total
|
|
Crime |
$1,157 |
$0 |
$2,743 |
$578 |
$4,478 |
Labor market earnings associated with high school graduation |
$907 |
$1,998 |
$914 |
$0 |
$3,820 |
K-12 special education |
$59 |
$0 |
$0 |
$30 |
$89 |
Health care associated with emergency department visits |
$256 |
$49 |
$297 |
$128 |
$729 |
Costs of higher education |
($125) |
($105) |
($34) |
($62) |
($327) |
Adjustment for deadweight cost of program |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
($31,008) |
($31,008) |
| |
Totals |
$2,254 |
$1,941 |
$3,919 |
($30,334) |
($22,219) |
|
Detailed Annual Cost Estimates Per Participant |
Program costs |
$5,828 |
2004 |
Present value of net program costs (in 2016 dollars) |
($61,908) |
Comparison costs |
$0 |
2004 |
Cost range (+ or -) |
10 % |
This intensive program is delivered over a ten-year period. We estimated costs from Foster, E.M., Jones, D.E., & the Conduct Problems Prevention Research Group (2006). Can a costly intervention be cost-effective? An analysis of violence prevention. Archives of General Psychiatry, 63(11), 1284-1291.
The figures shown are estimates of the costs to implement programs in Washington. The comparison group costs reflect either no treatment or treatment as usual, depending on how effect sizes were calculated in the meta-analysis. The cost range reported above reflects potential variation or uncertainty in the cost estimate; more detail can be found in our Technical Documentation.
Estimated Cumulative Net Benefits Over Time (Non-Discounted Dollars) |
The graph above illustrates the estimated cumulative net benefits per-participant for the first fifty years beyond the initial investment in the program. We present these cash flows in non-discounted dollars to simplify the “break-even” point from a budgeting perspective. If the dollars are negative (bars below $0 line), the cumulative benefits do not outweigh the cost of the program up to that point in time. The program breaks even when the dollars reach $0. At this point, the total benefits to participants, taxpayers, and others, are equal to the cost of the program. If the dollars are above $0, the benefits of the program exceed the initial investment. |
Citations Used in the Meta-Analysis
Conduct Problems Prevention Research Group. (2007). Fast track randomized controlled trial to prevent externalizing psychiatric disorders: Findings from grades 3 to 9. Journal of the American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry, 46(10), 1250-1262.
Conduct Problems Prevention Research Group. (2010). Fast Track intervention effects on youth arrests and delinquency. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 6(2), 131-157.
Conduct Problems Prevention Research Group. (2011). The effects of the Fast Track preventive intervention on the development of conduct disorder across childhood. Child Development, 82(1), 331-345.
Jones, D., Godwin, J., Dodge, K. A., Bierman, K. L., Coie, J. D., Greenberg, M. T., . . . Pinderhughes, E. E. (2010). Impact of the fast track prevention program on health services use by conduct-problem youth. Pediatrics, 125(1), e130-e136.