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Washington State Institute for Public Policy
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Project Northland

Public Health & Prevention: Community-based
Benefit-cost methods last updated December 2024.  Literature review updated March 2019.
Project Northland is a multilevel, universal intervention designed to prevent substance use among adolescents in middle school. The 6th grade home component targets parent-child communication via homework assignments, group discussions, and the establishment of a communitywide task force. The 7th grade school-based curriculum, which focuses on improving resistance skills and social norms regarding teen alcohol use, includes class discussions, games, and role plays. The 8th grade components include the peer-led Powerlines curriculum, a mock town meeting, and a community action project. Our review of Project Northland is limited to the 6th-8th grade implementation model and does not include the Class Action high school component.
 
ALL
BENEFIT-COST
META-ANALYSIS
CITATIONS
For an overview of WSIPP's Benefit-Cost Model, please see this guide. The estimates shown are present value, life cycle benefits and costs. All dollars are expressed in the base year chosen for this analysis (2023).  The chance the benefits exceed the costs are derived from a Monte Carlo risk analysis. The details on this, as well as the economic discount rates and other relevant parameters are described in our Technical Documentation.
Benefit-Cost Summary Statistics Per Participant
Benefits to:
Taxpayers $128 Benefits minus costs $263
Participants $249 Benefit to cost ratio $3.21
Others $48 Chance the program will produce
Indirect ($43) benefits greater than the costs 53%
Total benefits $382
Net program cost ($119)
Benefits minus cost $263

Meta-analysis is a statistical method to combine the results from separate studies on a program, policy, or topic to estimate its effect on an outcome. WSIPP systematically evaluates all credible evaluations we can locate on each topic. The outcomes measured are the program impacts measured in the research literature (for example, impacts on crime or educational attainment). Treatment N represents the total number of individuals or units in the treatment group across the included studies.

An effect size (ES) is a standard metric that summarizes the degree to which a program or policy affects a measured outcome. If the effect size is positive, the outcome increases. If the effect size is negative, the outcome decreases. See Estimating Program Effects Using Effect Sizes for additional information on how we estimate effect sizes.

The effect size may be adjusted from the unadjusted effect size estimated in the meta-analysis. Historically, WSIPP adjusted effect sizes to some programs based on the methodological characteristics of the study. For programs reviewed in 2024 or later, we do not make additional adjustments, and we use the unadjusted effect size whenever we run a benefit-cost analysis.

Research shows the magnitude of effects may change over time. For those effect sizes, we estimate outcome-based adjustments, which we apply between the first time ES is estimated and the second time ES is estimated. More details about these adjustments can be found in our Technical Documentation.

Meta-Analysis of Program Effects
Outcomes measured Treatment age No. of effect sizes Treatment N Effect sizes (ES) and standard errors (SE) used in the benefit-cost analysis Unadjusted effect size (random effects model)
First time ES is estimated Second time ES is estimated
ES SE Age ES SE Age ES p-value
Smoking before end of middle school
Any smoking of tobacco by the end of middle school, typically by age 13.
 12 1 950 -0.059 0.061 14 -0.059 0.061 14 -0.179 0.004
Cannabis use before end of middle school
Any use of cannabis by the end of middle school, typically by age 13.
12 1 950 -0.020 0.061 14 -0.020 0.061 14 -0.059 0.330
Alcohol use before end of middle school
Any use of alcohol by the end of middle school, typically by age 13.
12 4 4111 -0.046 0.029 14 -0.046 0.029 14 -0.108 0.026
Problem alcohol use
Alcohol use reflecting problem behaviors (e.g., high frequency drinking, binge drinking, or drinking that has a high impact on daily life) for individuals who do not have an alcohol use disorder.
 12 1 1401 -0.011 0.037 16 -0.011 0.037 26 -0.033 0.375
Alcohol use before end of high school
Any use of alcohol by the end of high school, typically between ages 14 and 18.
12 1 1401 -0.018 0.037 16 -0.018 0.037 18 -0.056 0.131
1In addition to the outcomes measured in the meta-analysis table, WSIPP measures benefits and costs estimated from other outcomes associated with those reported in the evaluation literature. For example, empirical research demonstrates that high school graduation leads to reduced crime. These associated measures provide a more complete picture of the detailed costs and benefits of the program.

2“Others” includes benefits to people other than taxpayers and participants. Depending on the program, it could include reductions in crime victimization, the economic benefits from a more educated workforce, and the benefits from employer-paid health insurance.

3“Indirect benefits” includes estimates of the net changes in the value of a statistical life and net changes in the deadweight costs of taxation.
Detailed Monetary Benefit Estimates Per Participant
Affected outcome: Resulting benefits:1 Benefits accrue to:
Taxpayers Participants Others2 Indirect3 Total
Alcohol use before end of middle school Criminal justice system $16 $0 $39 $8 $64
Problem alcohol use Labor market earnings associated with problem alcohol use $105 $247 $0 $0 $352
Property loss associated with problem alcohol use $0 $1 $1 $0 $2
Health care associated with problem alcohol use $6 $1 $7 $3 $18
Mortality associated with problem alcohol $0 $1 $0 $5 $6
Program cost Adjustment for deadweight cost of program $0 $0 $0 ($60) ($60)
Totals $128 $249 $48 ($43) $382
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Detailed Annual Cost Estimates Per Participant
Annual cost Year dollars Summary
Program costs $35 2018 Present value of net program costs (in 2023 dollars) ($119)
Comparison costs $0 2018 Cost range (+ or -) 20%
The per-student cost includes the cost of providing training and materials to teachers, the cost of program-related teacher time that occurs outside of regular school hours, the cost of substitute teacher time while teachers attend off-site training, and other school staff time required for program implementation. The cost includes $638 (2019 dollars) for 3-year curriculum and materials, and training cost of $5,000 plus $2,200 for trainer travel (personal communication with Debra Hemphill, Hazelden Publishing, June 6 , 2019). We assume two teachers per grade in a school will deliver the program, and include two days of substitute time per teacher at the state-funded rate of $151.86 per day (personal communication from Financial Resources staff at the Office of the Superintendent of Public Instruction, July 2019) to allow teachers to attend training. We include 50% of a school counselor at each school with an annual salary of $84,240 (based on the School District Personnel Summary Reports 2017–18 School Year) to coordinate the program, and assume student populations of the prototypical Washington middle school (RCW 28A.150.260).
The figures shown are estimates of the costs to implement programs in Washington. The comparison group costs reflect either no treatment or treatment as usual, depending on how effect sizes were calculated in the meta-analysis. The cost range reported above reflects potential variation or uncertainty in the cost estimate; more detail can be found in our Technical Documentation.
Benefits Minus Costs
Benefits by Perspective
Taxpayer Benefits by Source of Value
Benefits Minus Costs Over Time (Cumulative Discounted Dollars)
The graph above illustrates the estimated cumulative net benefits per-participant for the first fifty years beyond the initial investment in the program. We present these cash flows in discounted dollars. If the dollars are negative (bars below $0 line), the cumulative benefits do not outweigh the cost of the program up to that point in time. The program breaks even when the dollars reach $0. At this point, the total benefits to participants, taxpayers, and others, are equal to the cost of the program. If the dollars are above $0, the benefits of the program exceed the initial investment.

Citations Used in the Meta-Analysis

Komro, K.A., Perry, C.L., Veblen-Mortenson, S., Farbakhsh, K., Toomey, T.L., Stigler, M.H., Jones-Webb, R., . . . Williams, C.L. ( 2008). Outcomes from a randomized controlled trial of a multi-component alcohol use preventive intervention for urban youth: Project Northland Chicago. Addiction, 103(4), 606-618.

Perry, C.L. et al. (1996). Project Northland: Outcomes of a communitywide alcohol use prevention program during early adolescence. American Journal of Public Health, 86(7), 956-965.

Perry, C.L., Williams, C.L., Komro, K.A., Veblen-Mortenson, S., Stigler, M.H., Munson, K.A., et al. (2002). Project Northland: Long-term outcomes of community action to reduce adolescent alcohol use. Health Education Research, 17(1), 117-132.

West, B., Abatemarco, D., Ohman-Strickland, P.A., Zec, V., Russo, A., & Milic, R. (2008). Project Northland in Croatia: results and lessons learned. Journal of Drug Education, 38(1), 55-70.