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10% increase in cigarette tax (effect on youth)

Public Health & Prevention: Population-level policies
  Literature review updated December 2014.
This program was archived December 2024.

We reviewed all available research studies on the degree to which changing cigarette taxes, and thereby cigarette retail prices, affects the prevalence of cigarette smoking among youth. The effects presented in this meta-analysis reflect the effects of a 10% increase in cigarette taxes.
 
ALL
META-ANALYSIS
CITATIONS

Meta-analysis is a statistical method to combine the results from separate studies on a program, policy, or topic to estimate its effect on an outcome. WSIPP systematically evaluates all credible evaluations we can locate on each topic. The outcomes measured are the program impacts measured in the research literature (for example, impacts on crime or educational attainment). Treatment N represents the total number of individuals or units in the treatment group across the included studies.

An effect size (ES) is a standard metric that summarizes the degree to which a program or policy affects a measured outcome. If the effect size is positive, the outcome increases. If the effect size is negative, the outcome decreases. See Estimating Program Effects Using Effect Sizes for additional information on how we estimate effect sizes.

The effect size may be adjusted from the unadjusted effect size estimated in the meta-analysis. Historically, WSIPP adjusted effect sizes to some programs based on the methodological characteristics of the study. For programs reviewed in 2024 or later, we do not make additional adjustments, and we use the unadjusted effect size whenever we run a benefit-cost analysis.

Research shows the magnitude of effects may change over time. For those effect sizes, we estimate outcome-based adjustments, which we apply between the first time ES is estimated and the second time ES is estimated. More details about these adjustments can be found in our Technical Documentation.

Meta-Analysis of Program Effects
Outcomes measured No. of effect sizes Treatment N Effect sizes (ES) and standard errors (SE) Unadjusted effect size (random effects model)
ES SE Age ES p-value
Smoking before end of high school
Any smoking of tobacco by the end of high school, typically between ages 14 and 18.
 0 9 409686 -0.009 0.000 16 -0.009 0.001

Citations Used in the Meta-Analysis

Carpenter, C., & Cook, P.J. (2008). Cigarette taxes and youth smoking: New evidence from national, state, and local Youth Risk Behavior Surveys. Journal of Health Economics, 27(2), 287-299.

Chaloupka, F.J., Grossman, M., & National Bureau of Economic Research. (1996). Price, tobacco control policies and youth smoking. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.

DeCicca, P., Kenkel, D., & Mathios, A. (2002). Putting out the fires: Will higher taxes reduce the onset of youth smoking? Journal of Political Economy Chicago, 110, 144-169.

Dee, T.S. (2000). The complementarity of teen smoking and drinking. Journal of Health Economics, 18, 769-793.

Gruber, J. & Zinman, J. (2000). Youth smoking in the U.S.: Evidence and implications. NBER Working Paper No. w7780. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Huang, J., Chaloupka, F.J., & National Bureau of Economic Research. (2012). The impact of the 2009 federal tobacco excise tax increase on youth tobacco use. Cambridge, Mass: National Bureau of Economic Research.

Tauras, J.A., Markowitz, S., & Cawley, J. (2005). Tobacco control policies and youth smoking: Evidence from a new era. Substance Use: Individual Behaviour, Social Interactions, Markets and Politics, 16, 277-291.