Amani Rashid, Paige Wanner - September 2023

In November 2012, Washington State voters passed Initiative 502 (I-502), which legalized limited possession, private use, and commercial sales of cannabis for adults. Specifically, I-502 legalized the possession of up to one ounce of cannabis (about 28 grams) for personal use for individuals ages 21 and older.

In this report, we examined how rates of cannabis possession misdemeanor convictions have changed since the enactment of I-502. We found that cannabis possession conviction rates dropped to almost zero among adults of legal age immediately after I-502 went into effect. Rates also substantively dropped for underaged individuals after NMC legalization, but not as dramatically as for adults ages 21 and over. Across all age groups, we find no significant changes in conviction rates after the advent of NMC retail operations.

Amani Rashid - September 2023

In November 2012, Washington State voters passed Initiative 502 (I-502), which legalized limited possession, private use, and commercial sales of cannabis for adults. In this report, we examined the relationship between greater access to licensed non-medical cannabis (NMC) retailers and the prevalence of fatal traffic collisions. We found that a lower average travel time to an NMC retailer is related to both a modest increase in the prevalence of total drivers involved in a fatal traffic collision and drivers who test positive for THC. These findings suggest that in areas with more cannabis use (as measured by easier access to legal cannabis retail), there are more drivers involved in fatal traffic collisions. We found no evidence that retail access relates to the prevalence of drivers who test positive for alcohol alone (BAC at least 0.08), or any amount of alcohol in combination with THC.

Bailey Ingraham, Amani Rashid - September 2023

In November 2012, Washington State voters passed Initiative 502 (I-502), which legalized limited possession, private use, and commercial sales of cannabis for adults. In this report, using national survey data between 2004 to 2019, we compared changes in the rates of reported cannabis, alcohol, and other substance use in Washington relative to comparable states after the enactment of I-502 and the advent of a licensed retail market. We do not find evidence that the enactment of I-502 or the advent of cannabis retail sales in Washington significantly changed reported adult or youth cannabis use, alcohol use, or other substance use compared to non-legalizing states.

Julia Cramer, Kara Krnacik - September 2023

WSIPP receives funding from the legislature to conduct research on K-12 education topics that are relevant in Washington. In this report, we examine academic achievement among public school students in Washington during the COVID-19 pandemic. First, we estimate how student math and English Language Arts (ELA) achievement changed during the pandemic. Next, we predict long-term effects on future earnings, and finally, we discuss several interventions that may help students recover academically.

Overall, we found that average test scores in the 2022 school year were 0.20 standard deviations (SD) lower than average test scores before the pandemic. We observed larger declines in math test scores than ELA scores, and we estimated the largest effect in middle school grades, though effects in elementary and high school grades are also notable. Further, we found larger test score declines among female students, students of color, and low-income students compared to their male, White, Asian, and economically advantaged peers.

We estimate that a 0.20 SD decline in test scores is associated with an average $32,000 decrease in future earnings per student compared to students before the pandemic. Finally, we reviewed the impact of interventions like tutoring, academically-focused summer school programs, and double-dose classes on student achievement. We estimate that on average, these programs increase test scores between 0.03 and 0.39 SD. These interventions may help offset the decline in scores we observe and help students recover academically in the post-pandemic period.

Morgan Spangler, Colin Gibson - June 2023

In Washington State, Functional Family Therapy (FFT) is one of the many evidence-based programs made available to court-involved youth on probation. In 2022, WSIPP was contracted to evaluate the effect of the program on recidivism.

Using administrative data, this study examined the likelihood of recidivism for youth participating in FFT relative to eligible youth who did not participate in FFT. In addition, we evaluated for whom, and under what conditions, the program was most effective.

Our findings indicate that participation in FFT is associated with an increased likelihood of recidivism, when compared to the average “treatment-as-usual” that youth in the juvenile courts typically receive. On average, youth who started FFT were 10.1 percentage points more likely to recidivate than youth in the comparison group. Of those who recidivated, there were no significant differences found in the rates of felony or violent felony recidivism. The association between participation in FFT and recidivism did not vary based on youth characteristics, geography, living situation, or competency of therapist.

Marna Miller, Morgan Spangler, Nathan Adams, Heather Grob - June 2023

In 2016, HB 1713 (Ricky’s Law) modified the Involuntary Treatment Act. The Act integrated crisis response for mental health and substance abuse (SUD), created a new classification of mental health professionals, and mandated the creation of Secure Withdrawal and Management and Stabilization facilities (SWMS) to serve those detained for SUD.

The law also directed WSIPP to evaluate the effects of the law. We evaluated the outcomes for those detained to SWMS, comparing them to people never detained but who had received voluntary detoxification treatment in the same period.

In the six months following treatment, SWMS clients were less likely to:

• Receive SUD treatment;
• Experience homelessness;
• Be treated in the emergency department or be hospitalized;
• Receive any state financial supports.

We found no significant difference in rates of mental health treatment, arrest, or employment.

Our benefit-cost analysis found that, compared to the detox group, SWMS returns $0.19 per dollar spent. We estimate that benefits will exceed costs 6% of the time. That is, compared to the detox-only group, the cost of the program exceeds the benefits we are able to estimate.

Corey Whichard, Katelyn Kelley - June 2023

In May 2021, the Washington Legislature directed WSIPP to conduct a study of Washington State Patrol’s (WSP) Operation Net Nanny (“Net Nanny”). Net Nanny is a type of undercover law enforcement activity known as an “internet sting operation.” WSP detectives designed Net Nanny to arrest adults who use the internet to solicit sexual activity with minors.

The legislative assignment outlined two objectives for WSIPP’s study. First, the study must describe the current research on internet sting operations. Second, the study must include an analysis that compares the characteristics of individuals convicted through Net Nanny with individuals convicted of child sex offenses through other avenues.

To address the first objective, we reviewed the academic literature on internet sting operations. However, we found limited research on this topic. It is unclear whether these operations are effective at deterring or reducing crime.

To address the second objective, we compiled administrative data on all adults in Washington State who were convicted of child sex crimes since Net Nanny has been active. We used this data to compare two groups: (1) individuals arrested via Net Nanny; and (2) individuals who were arrested through traditional police tactics. We found that individuals in both groups exhibit similar demographic characteristics and criminal history. On average, across these specific measures, individuals convicted through Net Nanny resemble people convicted of completed sexual crimes against minors.

Bailey Ingraham, Amani Rashid - June 2023

In November 2012, Washington State voters passed Initiative 502 (I-502), which legalized limited possession, private use, and commercial sales of cannabis for adults. In this report, we describe the evolution of cannabis-related policy, revenues, and expenditures over the past decade.

We first describe the implementation of I-502 and summarize major cannabis-related policy milestones through the fiscal year 2022. In addition, we detail aspects of the Washington cannabis market structure and regulatory rules and compare components of non-medical cannabis (NMC) legalization nationwide. Second, we describe cannabis-related sales, excise tax revenues, and spending of those revenues over the last decade. In fiscal year 2022, cannabis retailers sold nearly $1.4 billion in cannabis products, and just over half a billion dollars were generated in excise tax revenues. Most of these revenues are transferred to the general fund and state basic health plan trust, and less than 20% goes to state agencies for prevention, healthcare, research, and cannabis industry oversight. Since fiscal year 2016, this distribution of expenditures has not significantly changed, although the total dollar amount of cannabis-related revenue and expenditure has nearly tripled.

Amani Rashid, Rebecca Goodvin, Kara Krnacik, Nathan Adams - December 2022

In the Early Start Act of 2015, the Washington State Legislature required child care and early learning providers who serve non-school-aged children and receive state subsidies to participate in Early Achievers (EA), the state’s quality rating and improvement system (QRIS). The Early Achievers program was intended to improve access to high-quality care for low-income families and other groups.

In this report, we examine low-income family access to subsidized child care, Early Childhood Education and Assistance Programming (ECEAP), or Head Start programming that has met Early Achiever’s quality standards as of 2019, at the end of the initial Early Achievers roll out. Our estimates indicate that, on average in Washington in 2019, there are roughly three low-income children nearby for each high-quality publicly supported child care/early learning “slot.” Across the state, we find considerable variation in local access to child care that has met EA quality standards. However, we do not find large differences in average access across the following neighborhood comparisons: urban/rural regionality, majority/minority BIPOC population makeup, or higher/lower vulnerability designation.

This report—along with a concurrent analysis of benefits and costs of EA—concludes WSIPP’s Early Achievers evaluation series.

Rebecca Goodvin, Amani Rashid, Kara Krnacik - December 2022

In the Early Start Act of 2015, the Washington State Legislature required child care and early learning providers who serve non-school-aged children and receive state subsidies to participate in Early Achievers (EA), the state’s quality rating and improvement system (QRIS). This legislation also directed WSIPP to examine the relationship between EA quality ratings and long-term outcomes for children who participate in state-subsidized child care and early learning programs. WSIPP was required to produce annual reports to the legislature from December 2019 through December 2022; the final report must include a benefit-cost analysis of EA.

We previously found that attending a site meeting EA quality standards in the pre-kindergarten year was associated with better outcomes in kindergarten, compared with attending a rated site that did not yet meet standards. In this fourth report, we focus on projected monetary benefits tied to those outcomes. On average, attending an EA quality Early Childhood Education and Assistance Program (ECEAP) or child care center may return benefits of approximately $4,300 to $7,000 per child over the course of the lifespan. Analysis of aligned program costs was limited by data availability.

This report—along with a concurrent report examining low-income families’ access to publicly funded EA quality child care and early learning—concludes WSIPP’s Early Achievers evaluation series.